Lesson of the Month/2 away Cube Action
If your opponent is 2 away, the take decision is very straight forward. If his winning chances are higher than his take point, take, if lower, drop. Of course, one must adjust for gammons, using the proper price of gammons.
The real question is when to double. We recommend using Woolsey’s Law and if you determine that your opponent will drop, unless you are “too good” to double (too many gammons), you should double. If you are not sure if you would take or drop, then FOR SURE it is a double. But what if you are sure it is a take?
At most match scores your decision lies primarily in determining how many market losers you have. If you believe your opponent has a take, and you have very few roll sequences (your roll and then his roll) that results in a position whereby your opponent should drop, then you probably should not double. Why? Why double if your opponent probably is going to take the cube next time? But if you have many rolls that would cause your opponent to drop next time, you have “lost your market” and you will end up winning only 1 point instead of 2, or maybe even 4 if you could have won gammons. So if you have a lot of market losers, you probably should double, even if he has a take.
But we have discovered that we can simplify the doubling decision when your opponent is 2/away and you are 3/away or more. Very simply, if it is a pure racing situation and there are not gammon risks, you should double when you opponent is within 7 percent of his take point. In other words, if his take point is 22.5 percent, you should double when your opponent’s winning chances are 29.5 percent or less.
In a pure racing situation, you should be able to come fairly close to estimating winning percentages using The Keith Count, Kleinman, EPC, or Trice, provided you know how to adjust for distribution (wastage) and how to adjust the winning percentages for differences in the race.
What about positions that do have gammon potential? Again, the taker’s decision is simple: if, after adjusting for gammons (using the appropriate gammon values for the score), the taker’s net winning chances are higher than the take point, he should take, and if lower, he should drop.
When to double? Again, use Woolsey’s Law and if you are sure it’s a drop, unless you are too good, you should double. If you think it is a take or drop but are not really sure, then, FOR SURE it is a double. But if you are confident that it is a take, then you apply the following formula to make your decision:
If your opponent is within 8 percent of his take point, after adjusting for gammons, and you have at least 4 market losers, you should double.
Let me give you an example. Let’s say the score is 2away/8away, and you are 8 away. The take point for the leader at this score is 21.5, and the gammon value is .650. So let’s pretend there is a position where the trailer is on roll, and he will win the game an estimate 60% of the time. Of course, that means that the leader has 40% winning chances. Now, let’s assume that the leader will get gammoned 20% of the time. Those 20 gammons, at .65 are worth 13 wins. If you take 40 percent winning chances and subtract 13, you net 27. 27 is higher than 21.5, so it is a clear take.
Now, should the trailer (the player who is 8 away) double? Well, the first question to answer is this: is the leaders winning percentage, after adjusting for gammons, within 8 percent of his take point? The take point is 21.5, and add 8 percent to that, and that is 29.5. His net value is 27, so it is clearly within the 8 percent. So the other player is within range to double IF HE HAS 4 OR MORE MARKET LOSERS. In order to count market losers, you simply need to estimate what rolls by you, followed by your opponents rolls, will put you in a position where you would get a drop on your next roll. This estimation takes some practice, and there are tools in eXtremeGammon to help you—primarily the Dice Log—but in time this is a skill that you can acquire.